Ukrainian Casualty & KIA Estimate Based on Historic Amputation Rates, Amputees in Ukraine, and the Size of Ukriane's 2022 Military: 2.72 - 3 million Soldiers Killed and Injured.
Estimates based on WSJ article citing 50,000 Ukrainians lost a limb since Feb. 24, 2022 and the historic prevalence of amputations among American military casualties in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Vietnam.
In the beginning of August, the Wall Street Journal reported that between 20,000 and 50,000 Ukrainians have lost at least one limb since Feb. 24, 2022. The world’s largest prosthetic maker estimates 50,000 Ukrainians have lost at least one limb since the SMO began based on data from government and medical providers.
The Kyiv-based charity Ukrianian People ICF estimated 10% of serious military injuries require amputation. If this estimate is correct, 50,000 amputees among Ukrianian soldiers would equate to 500,000 serious injuries. This does not include “non serious” injuries but this estimate equals the total casualties and killed that the NYT estimates for both Russia and Ukraine.
Ukraine has not released official data about their military losses. To get a rough estimate of Ukrainian casualties and KIA, this writer will use the 50,000 lost limb figure because most occurred among soldiers, the war is not over, and injuries tend to be under-reported during the conflict.
During Iraq and Afghanistan, 70.5% of American military casualties sustained a major limb injury. 5.2% of all serious injuries and 7.4% of major limb injuries were amputations. During Vietnam, amputations accounted for 8.3% of major limb injuries.
If the amputation rate as a portion of major limb injuries and military casualties America suffered in Iraq/Afghanistan and Vietnam are replicated in Ukraine, the following equations can be used to estimate major limb injuries (MLI) suffered by Ukraine, which can then be used to estimate total casualties (injuries) and KIA (killed in action) for Ukraine.
Estimating Major Limb Injuries
50,000/0.074 (% of MLI in Iraq/Afghanistan)= 675,675.675 MLI
50,000/0.083 (%of MLI Vietnam)= 602,409.63 MLI.
Estimating Casualties
Using American figures from American casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan, all major limb injuries account for 70.5% of all casualties.
MLI/.295 = total casualties
675,675 MLI / .295 = 2,290,423.72
602,409 MLI / .295 = 2,042,064.4
Estimating KIA for Ukraine
Since the typical ratio of those wounded to those killed in conflict has historically hovered around the 3:1 ratio, to find KIA for Ukraine, casualties will be divided by three:
2,290,423 / 3 =763,474 KIA
2,042,064 / 3 = 680,688 KIA
Total Losses
To find total wounded and killed, casualties and KIA will be added together:
2,290,423 + 763,474 = 3,053,897 wounded and killed.
2,042,064 + 680,688 = 2,722,752 wounded and killed.
Ukraine’s population was 41 million in 2021, declining to 39.7 million in 2022 and 28-34 million in 2023. This demonstrates a continual decline in population.
2,722,752 to 3,053,897 killed and wounded Ukrainian soldiers would equate to 6.6%-7.4% of Ukraine’s population in 2021, 6.8-7.6% of Ukraine’s 2022 population, and 8%-10% of Ukraine’s 2023 population.
An estimated 7.6 million Ukrainians left the country since the SMO, representing 18.53% of Ukraine’s pre-war population of 41 million. Such a mass exodus would leave Ukraine with a population of 33.4 million compared to the 2021 population of 41 million.
US officials have recently claimed total casulties and death for both Russia and Ukraine are roughly 500,000. US officials announced they “feared” Ukraine was too “casualty averse,” which was undermining the counteroffensive.
US officials doubted Ukraine’s offensive would be successful, with the Pentagon recommending Ukraine attempt one large attack after gathering their forces and criticizing Ukraine for choosing to use smaller attack groups to limit loss of life:
An August 18th article by the NYT claimed that Ukraine had 500,000 troops remaining, casualties of both Russia and Ukraine was approaching 500,000, and that almost 300,000 Russians were killed or injured:
The New York Times claimed Ukraine’s military was 500,000 strong. However, Ukraine claimed last year they were building a 1 million man army and the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) claimed Ukriane has 196,000 active dirty and 900,000 reserve soldiers in 2022.
Wikipedia claims Ukriane had 700,000 active duty and 1,000,000 reservists in 2022:
Ukraine had an estimated 190,000 (IISS)-700,000 (Wikipedia) active duty and 900,000-1 million reservists in 2022. Given the statistics from ISS and Wikipedia, Ukriane's military force numbered between 1,196,600 (IISS) and 1.7 million (Wikipedia) soldiers in 2022. NYT’s claims that Ukriane has 500,000 soldiers left as of August 2023. This is a difference of between 696,000 (IISS) and 1.2 million (Wikipedia) Ukrianian soldiers from 2022 to August 2023. This represents a massive decrease in the size of the Ukrianian military of 29.41% using Wikipedia numbers and 41.78% using IISS’ numbers. A combination of disabling injuries, death, capture, and desertion can explain what happened to the 696,000-1.2 million unaccounted for Ukrianian soliders between 2022 and August 2023. This figure far exceeds casualty projections by outlets like New York Times (300,000 Russian casualties, nearly 500,000 total) as well as the estimate of 400,000 killed and injured Ukrianians and 100,000-150,000 killed and injured Russians provided by Col. Douglas MacGregor or the 300,000 total casualties claimed by RFK Jr.
However, their estimates don't consider the claim that Ukraine's force is now down to 500,000 from 1.19-1.7 million in 2022.
The difference between NYT’s casualty estimate and Ukraine’s 1 million army goal and is equal to the NYT’s estimate for the total casualties in the conflict. The 1 million army was planned before the latest counteroffensive attempt by Ukraine:
The Times claimed in June 2022 that Ukraine was amassing a 1 million man military:
Col. Douglas MacGregor has estimated Ukrainian killed and injured at 400,000 while estimating Russian losses at 50,000 KIA and 50,000-100,000 injuries:
When the conflict ends, leaders must face accountability for their willingness to slaughter civilians. When leaders doubted the ability of Ukraine’s counteroffensive to succeed, they had an obligation to spare the senseless loss of life. When the total loss of life becomes known after the hostilities end, will it be worth whatever the leaders were trying to accomplish (hurt Russia, replace Putin)? Or will they be guilty of the same crimes Nazis at Nuremberg hung for?