Iowa Caucus Results: Trump Projected to Win Half of the Delegates in Iowa, Strugges with Young Voters. Iran Unleashes Attacks on Alleged Mossad Sites in Kurdistan-Iraq and Syria.
Falcon Group owner and wealthy Kurdish-Iraqi businessmen Peshraw Dizayee reportedly killed during Iranian strikes on January 15, 2024.
Iowa GOP Presidential Primary
NBC live stream of the 2024 Caucus, showing how early the state was called for Trump:
NBC’s first projection with ~1% of the vote in was Trump receiving 74.6% of the votes. This projection was more than 23 points higher than Trump actually received (~51%).
Trump’s projected votes dropped to 55.5% when 2% of the vote was in:
Trump’s portion of votes dropped to 49.9% when 6% of the vote was in:
Iowa was called for Trump by several major media outlets by 8:31 EST on January 15, 2024:
As of 12:00 PM EST on January 16, 2024, Trump is projected to win 20 delegates and receive 51% of the votes.
DeSantis, Haley, and Vivek acquired a combined 20 delegates. Demonstrating Trump could struggle if the DeSantis, Haley, and Vivek votes consolidate behind DeSantis or Haley.
The results in Iowa as of the evening of January 16th align closely with a caucus poll shared by the Des Moines Register on January 14, 2024, showing Trump’s support dipped from 51% to 48%. This makes the early call by NBC showing Trump with 74.6% of the vote highly questionable, supporting arguments that the early call hurt various candidates such as DeSantis and Haley while benefiting Trump (because Trump’s early lead was more than 23 points higher than his final share of votes).
DeSantis’ campaign condemned the media calling Iowa for Trump so early:
Trump previously condemned media outlets for calling Arizona for Biden too early in the 2020 Presidential election:
Vivek quickly dropped out of the 2024 Presidential race and endorsed Trump. This could signify a need by Trump to attract competing factions of GOP voters, particularly younger voters.
Trump’s Support in Iowa
Based on polls by NBC, Trump struggled with the 17-29 year-old demographic, which favored DeSantis and Haley. He performed best among voters over 50, evangelicals, and voters whose primary issue is immigration:
Turnout for the Iowa primary was the lowest since 2000, with just under 111,000 Iowans voting. This challenges the claim that Trump running increases voter turnout.
Iranian Attacks Purported Mossad Targets in Iraq, Syria
The same day Trump was expected to win the first Republican Presidential primary, Iran unleashed a series of long-range missile strikes on targets in Kurdistan-Iraq and Syria. Iran claims to the targets were Mossad spy centers.
The strikes resulted in the death of a prominent Kurdish businessman (Peshraw Dizayee), who owns a company called Falcon Group that offers security, oil, agriculture (wheat production), and infrastructure investments, services, and assets in Iraq. Falcon Group is sister company of real estate developer Empire World:
Empire World describes itself as a developer focused on the Kurdistan region in Iraq:
Falcon Group is a “highly regarded” real estate company with a development encompassing 750,000m2 of land:
Falcon Group’s clients include Hunt Oil Company, Marathon Oil, Fox News, CNN, the US Army,
Hunt Oil Company was mired in a dispute with the CIA in the 1970s involving accusations by two sons of H.L. Hunt that the CIA embezzled $50 million from Hunt Oil Company:
Purported footage and images of Iran’s January 15, 2024 attacks, which led to the death of Peshraw Dizayee, the Kurdish owner of Falcon Group whose sister company is Empire World:
Trump was president when Iranian Gen. Soleimani was assassinated via a drone strike in Iraq. There was recently a deadly attack in Iran during a memorial for the late General, with Iran promising retribution after claiming Israel and the US were responsible for the act of terrorism.
The US DOJ released a largely redacted memo about Gen. Soleimani assassination:
The full document in PDF format: