Estimating Israeli Casualties after Israel Claims Over 8,600 Soldiers Disabled Since October 7th.
On 2024, Israel National News reported that 8,663 Israeli soldiers sustained disabling injuries since the October 7th attack:
Disabling injuries are only one type of injury sustained by casualties during a war. It is possible to estimate the casualties and fatalities sustained by the Israeli military by identifying the typical percentage of total injuries among soliders that are disabling.
For example, in the Libyan civil war, 35.5% of those killed and injured sustained permanent disabilities:
Applying the 35.5% rate of disability in the Libyan conflict to Israel's reported post-October 7th military disabilities would equate to 24,402 total injuries. Using the standard 3:1 ratio (3 injuries per 1 killed), Israeli soldiers KIA would be 8,052.
Of the 16,200,322 million veterans in the United States, 4,420,714 have a service connected disability of at least 10% (195,885 veteran disability ratings were not reported). This equates to at least 27.29% of US military veterans sustaining disability injuries:
Israel sustaining a 27.29% rate of disability would lead to about 31,744 casualties and 9,523 fatalities.
According to the US Census, post-9/11 US veterans have a 43% chance of experiencing a service related disability:
A disability rate of 43% and the reported 8,663 disabled Israeli soliders would result in 20,053 casualties and 6,015 fatalities.
The estimated Israeli losses using the Libyan conflict, the US veteran disability rate, and the US post-9/11 disability rates in a table:
According to Wikipedia, less than 22,000 Israeli soldiers and partisans have died 1860 fighting for Israel:
The Arab Israeli War was by far the bloodiest conflict in Israel's history, leading to 4,000 Israeli soldiers KIA. Meaning that if the above estimates of Israeli casualties based on disabling injuries is correct, the Gaza invasion has killed and injured more Israeli soldiers than any other war fought by Israel. Worse yet, the Gaza conflict could have already killed more Israeli soldiers than Israel lost in its two deadliest conflicts combined:
According to the Jewish Library, “a total of 24,068 IDF soldiers, police officers, prison wardens, Shin Bet security service and Mossad agents have been killed defending the land of Israel since 1860, the year that the first Jewish settlers left the secure walls of Jerusalem to build new neighborhoods:”
The reported disabilities among soldiers by Israel demonstrates the potentially historic losses sustained by the Israeli military. But even those estimates may be inaccurate, as Israeli media claim Israel is underreporting it's military injuries:
The Jewish Insider claimed that Israeli hospitals treated over 4,400 injured Israelis the first two days of the Gaza war:
In December 2023, The Times of Israel claimed over 2,000 Israeli soldiers were permanently disabled while another 6,125 were injured:
The statistics in the above article can likewise be used to estimate casualties, such as estimating the injuries and deaths per month sustained by Israeli soldiers between October 7 and December 17, 2023.
6,125 injured in 3 months would equate to around 1,041 injuries and 347 deaths monthly for Israel. The conflict has continued for around 9 months, so multiplying the monthly injured and killed numbers would result 3,125 fatalities and 9,375 injuries. But this estimate would likewise result in an astronomically high disability rate for Israel, as 8,663 troops sustained disabling injuries and the disability rate for Israeli soldiers would be 92.4%. This suggests that if the number of disabled Israel soldiers since October 7th is around 8,663, total Israeli injuries are likely at least twice as high and fatalities are around 1/3rd of the total number of injuries.
All estimates of casualties and fatalities, including the lowest one based on a rate of 1,042 injuries and 347 deaths per month, suggest Israeli has sustained a historic amount of military injuries and fatalities, surpassing the losses of the Arab Israeli war.